In his opening letter for the September 2012 issue of The Lutheran Witness, President Harrison continues his message about the Missouri Synod's low birth rate:

"The Lutheran Church-Missouri Synod is sorely pressed.  Thirty years ago, when I graduated from high school, the pool of youth in our church body numbered some 210,000.  Today, the number is 90,000.  This is because our birth rate has simply mirrored that of the broader European-descent population, and mission gains have not kept up with the decline in growth by birth."

For previous quotes from President Harrison and for other statistics, see the posts labled "LCMS population decline."

LCMS Demographics of Birth Control

Note this data: http://concordiatheology.org/2012/06/a-glimpse-into-the-past-and-future-of-the-lcms/

"Throughout the 1950s and 60s we averaged well over 80,000 infant baptisms per year. At the same time we averaged over 30,000 adult conversions. If we had maintained the birth/infant baptism rate we had then, by my calculations we would have approximately 1.1 million more members in the LCMS."

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LCMS President Matt Harrison on "Be Fruitful and Multiply"

For those of you who did not have time to watch the video posted below, I have transcribed President Harrison's comments about the Missouri Synod's dismal birth rate and the divine ordinance "Be fruitful and multiply."

There are three things that are really hitting the Missouri Synod as much as anything.  We're doing, I mean we're doing better than a lot of churches of course.  But we've had a continuous slow decline over the last 50-40 years.  I think 30 years ago was the last recorded yearly increase in our membership.  Forty years ago, says Larry.  That's all right, he'll, as he becomes president and becomes more and more of a fundraiser he'll become less and less of a historian.  [Laughter]  The biggest challenge we face is the birthrate.  The birthrate of the Missouri Synod that is overwhelmingly white, descendent of European people in this synod - the birthrate of our church body has simply followed, mirrored, the broader birthrate of the United States among descendants of northern Europeans.  That's a fact.  There's hardly a single family out there that you're related to that has more children in the latest generation than it did in the previous generation.  Now, do I expect any wholesale turnaround in this phenomenon?  No, I don't.  There are all kinds of intense pressures upon us.  However, I think it's time for us to preach "Be fruitful and multiply."  That's what the Bible says.  And we ought to encourage young people and families who have the ability to have families.  And encourage them.  The church needs to be a place...  It's no time to despise family ministries.  It's no time to despise those kind of diakonic efforts in the church to care for marriages and families, etc.  It's time to redouble our efforts in those areas and it's time to speak clearly that it's a good thing to have a large Lutheran orthodox family.  If Muslims are having an average of 4.2 children a piece and we're having 2.1 children a piece, I would say God would be really happy if we'd bump it up to at least 4.2 per family.  Don't quote me on that.  [Laughter]

Pres. Matthew Harrison, ACNA-LCMS Open Forum, CTS Fort Wayne, Oct. 27, 2011.

The second issue he mentioned was the attrition rate with our youth and children, and the third was missions - specifically the need for church planting.

Lutheran Witness: "Be Fruitful and Multiply"

In his monthly Lutheran Witness article, President Harrison writes:

"Our LCMS birth rate mirrors that of the broader population of the U.S., which is at an all-time low.  So, how do we best encourage our young people to treasure marriage and have children?  How do we make the point in a freeing Gospel-oriented way?  How do we encourage those capable of having more children to do so?  How do we take concrete action in our congregations to care for children and encourage the adoption option?  "Be fruitful and multiply" (Gen. 1:28).  It can be a God-pleasing act to have a large, loving, orthodox Lutheran family, and those who are able should not be diverted from this by any self-imposed "green" limit of 2.1 children per couple."

WELS college president poses the procreation question

At a recent symposium on Lutheran schools, Rev. Mark Zarling (president of Martin Luther College) drew attention to the declining birthrate of his synod (Wisconsin) as well as others (Missouri and ELS). His data is drawn largely from a demographic study compiled by Dr. Ryan MacPherson, an ELS church historian. Zarling’s essay does not offer a definitive conclusion, but he does call for the church to examine its teaching and practice on the matter of procreation: “Has the Church watered down the Biblical testimony about the blessing of children, about the Lord as the author of life, about purpose and contentment in living a life of service to the Lord Jesus by serving another soul?” May the conversation Zarling has begun in the Wisconsin Synod continue, and may it bear fruit.

Here is an extended excerpt from Zarling’s paper (footnotes are omitted; most of them refer to MacPherson’s study):

You and I are concerned about the growth of the communion of saints, not the visible growth of an outward organization. At the same time, careful shepherds entrusted with flocks dare not overlook those statistics as a blessing from God that forces us to evaluate and analyze and PRAY. And as we turn over the data to expose some underlying causes, any minister of the gospel will be shocked at the realization that the worldview of death has infiltrated the homes and minds of so many people, including precious souls entrusted to our care.

Dr. Ryan MacPherson, a professor at Bethany Lutheran College, helps us to move the stones of the statistics around.92 His demographic study of the ELS showed a dramatic drop in birth rate during the history of that synod, from a birth rate of 3.77% in 1928 to a birth rate of 1.87% in 2008.93 Evidently other Lutherans also imbibed from the worldview that fewer children is better. The LCMS birth rate in 1961-2002 went from 3.34% to 1.33%, prompting a Missouri pastor to write, “Our church body has been complicit in its own demise by not emphasizing God's plan for procreation in marriage. We’re contracepting ourselves out of business.”94

Another partner in the old synodical conference had a similar history which resulted in a birth rate of 1.76% in the decade from 1999 through 2008.95 We WELSers are that partner.

Why such a precipitous drop in birth rates? Look at any population map and you will see birth rates plunging below replacement population in many continents. But why so among Christians, among people of the Word who believe children are precious gifts from God? They are taught that Sons are a heritage from the LORD, children a reward from him. Like arrows in the hands of a warrior are sons born in one’s youth. Blessed is the man whose quiver is full of them.96 Has the dominant cultural worldview convinced many people that an empty quiver allows one to substitute a heavier backpack of stuff for earthly life's brief journey?

One factor MacPherson identifies for this drop in birthrates is a thorny and emotional issue for many.97 I remember vividly the sometimes heated discussions in our dorm debates after a dog class that had any allusion to birth control. I commend to the reader MacPherson‟s study where he documents a clear shift among Lutheran theologians from equating birth control with sin to leaving it an open question and a matter of Christian freedom.98 His study gave me pause. Has the Church watered down the Biblical testimony about the blessing of children, about the Lord as the author of life, about purpose and contentment in living a life of service to the Lord Jesus by serving another soul? Neither time nor space allows us to explore other components of a culture of death in our country: abortion statistics that numb the mind;99 the crescendo of voices that raise the issue of euthanasia to the fore, whether discussing the terminally ill, or the weak and infirm, or simply the burden on society that a severely disabled person supposedly presents.

In an explanatory footnote (n. 97), Zarling calls for further introspection:

MacPherson outlines three possible causes for such declining rates among Lutheran bodies. First, the trend toward delaying marriage is identified. As more and more young adults aspire to college education, and then even a master’s degree, marriage and family are often postponed. Of special interest to this writer is an observation that MacPherson gleans from reading the work of Allan Carlson. “Today, college students typically graduate with tens of thousands of dollars in loan debt. The unanticipated consequences of this method for funding higher education become especially evident when we consider its effects on family formation, notably marriage and childbearing. Specifically, people assuming student loan debt tend to marry later, delay childbearing longer, and have fewer children during their lifetime.” Last May, 78.2% of the graduates from MLC graduated with debt. The average indebtedness was $22,176. This is of grave concern to me. Do we then unintentionally force our graduates into marriage and family decisions that don’t reflect the Bible’s priorities or a fourth petition attitude? Or have we unintentionally proclaimed a message to our students that the blessing of training to serve the Lord in gospel ministry is a greater or more important goal than the blessing of having and rearing children?

Thank you, President Zarling, for asking these soul-searching questions. May a renewed study of the pertinent Scripture passages bless your synod with a deeper appreciation for God's gift of children. And may the parents and pastors in your synod teach their little ones what a privilege it is to be made the children of God through Christ Jesus our Lord!

LCMS President Matt Harrison says "Be Fruitful and Multiply"

Set the little ball at the bottom of this youtube video at 9 minutes and 20 seconds into this video and listen to President Matt Harrison recommend giving heed to the divine command to "Be fruitful and Multiply" and have large families in the LCMS.

"'Anti-Abortion' is Only the Beginning" Part 2

Last month, I posted my request to LCMS President Jerry Kieschnick that he clarify his statement that "LCMS congregations and leaders ought to encourage prevention of unintended pregnancies".

I asked by email:

"What, exactly, do you mean by "unintended pregnancies"? Also, please
explain how congregations and leaders should encourage their prevention."

I received the following reply on Maundy Thursday, April 9:

Dear Dr. Heidenreich,

Grace to you and peace from God our Father and the Lord Jesus Christ.

President Kieschnick received your email and has asked me to respond to
you on his behalf.

The one certain method for the prevention of unwanted pregnancies is
abstinence. Congregations and leaders should encourage and teach
abstinence, within the context of the Sixth Commandment with its
explanation in Luther's Small Catechism and other Biblical teaching in
that accord.

Blessings,
Rev. Larry Krueger
Assistant to the President

I have replied as follows:

Rev. Krueger,

Thank you for your reply. However, with all due respect, you did not even attempt to answer my primary question: What, exactly, does President Kieschnick mean by 'unintended pregnancies'? On this question, your email leaves me more confused than I was before.

You have substituted the term "unwanted pregnancies." Is this what President Kieschnick meant to say rather than "unintended pregnancies"? Whether a couple "intended" to conceive a child or not, subsequently considering any "pregnancy" (i.e. baby) as "unwanted" is a blatantly sinful attitude, whether the couple is married or not.

In talking about "unintended pregnancies" was President Kieschnick referring only to out-of-wedlock conception? If so, then why did he speak only in terms of preventing pregnancy rather than unambiguously condemning the sin of fornication?

If, on the other hand, President Kieschnick was not only referring to out-of-wedlock conception, your answer to me would appear to suggest that he believes married couples should abstain for the purpose of preventing "unintended pregnancies." If this is the case, is he suggesting the use of Natural Family Planning, or is he suggesting complete abstinence?

Above all, I question this whole notion of "unintended" pregnancies. Such language fails to confess the fact that the creation of human life is an act of God. There is, therefore, no such thing as an "unintended" pregnancy. God is the one who "intends" to create life, and it is He alone who opens and closes the womb. No life can be created if God does not intend a life to come into being. We are simply His instruments.

In Genesis 30:2, we read: "Jacob’s anger was kindled against Rachel, and he said: 'Am I in the place of God, who has withheld from you the fruit of the womb?'"

Luther comments on this passage as follows:

“Although it is very easy to marry a wife, it is very difficult to support her along with the children and the household. Accordingly, no one notices this faith of Jacob. Indeed, many hate fertility in a wife for the sole reason that the offspring must be supported and brought up. For this is what they commonly say: ‘Why should I marry a wife when I am a pauper and a beggar? I would rather bear the burden of poverty alone and not load myself with misery and want.’ But this blame is unjustly fastened on marriage and fruitfulness. Indeed, you are indicting your unbelief by distrusting God’s goodness, and you are bringing greater misery upon yourself by disparaging God’s blessing. For if you had trust in God’s grace and promises, you would undoubtedly be supported. But because you do not hope in the Lord, you will never prosper.” [Luther's Works, vol. 5, page 332]

So, again, I ask what President Kieschnick meant by the term "unintended pregnancies."

Blessings to you in our risen Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ,

Erich Heidenreich, DDS
Zion-Marshall, MI

"'Anti-Abortion' is Only the Beginning"

"LCMS congregations and leaders ought to encourage prevention of unintended pregnancies"  Rev. Jerry Kieschnick, LCMS President, in the March 2009 President's Journal

What, exactly, do you mean by that, Rev. Kieschnick?

Perhaps if more people ask we'll get an answer. Copy and paste the following text in a personal email to president@lcms.org

Rev. Kieschnick,

In your March 2009 President's Journal you said "LCMS congregations and leaders ought to encourage prevention of unintended pregnancies".

What, exactly, do you mean by "unintended pregnancies"? Also, please explain how you would recommend congregations and leaders should encourage their prevention.

I would like your permission to publicly share your reply.

Thank you,

Your Name

Membership Declines Continue

The Christian Post reports:

"After years of continuous growth, membership in the Roman Catholic Church dropped by 0.59 percent and the Southern Baptist Convention decreased by 0.24 percent, according to the 2009 edition of the Yearbook of American & Canadian Churches, published this week. Although the percentage losses are small compared to the total membership of the churches, the yearbook pointed out that the two communions had "grown dependably" over the years and "now they join virtually every mainline church in reporting a membership decline." Other denominations that reported membership losses include ...the Lutheran Church – Missouri Synod (down 1.44 percent)..."

The editor of the Yearbook says: "There are no clear-cut theological or sociological reasons for church growth or decline."

Oh, really? I guess the effect of family planning (shown here) just kind of slips under the radar screen of most people's thinking. In 1961 LCMS members were reproducing at above the replacement fertility rate: we had 82,248 infant baptisms that year. In 2004, with the same number of overall membership reproduction had declined 60%, reflected by just 32,851 infant baptisms that year. Rev. Terry K. Dittmer, LCMS Director of Youth Ministry, pointed out: "At this time, the average age of an LCMS member is 62. We’re not having children. In that time, our youth population has shifted from 198,000 in 1980 to 102,000 in 2007 based on confirmation statistics."
No clear-cut theological or sociological reasons for the reported decline in membership?

I beg to differ.

Where are the Youth?

Rev. Terry K. Dittmer - LCMS Director of Youth Ministry - had these comments to make when a concern was brought to him about the number of youth in the LCMS. (This was part of a larger interview done with The Wittenberg Trail, a networking site for Lutherans) He brings up good points about the issue of the church contracepting itself out of existance, as well as retaining people and sustaining them through their entire life in their faith.

(WT)
2) Recently I read a statistic that there are "only a little over 100,000 high school youth in the LCMS out of 2.5 million". Why do you think that so few of our high school aged youth are part of the LCMS? Another way of asking that question is, "What is attracting the 100,000 to the LCMS?"

(Dr. Dittmer)
The reason there are so few youth in the LCMS is that we are an aging church and we are not reproducing ourselves. We have had 2.5 million members for the last 30 years. At this time, the average age of an LCMS member is 62. We’re not having children. In that time, our youth population has shifted from 198,000 in 1980 to 102,000 in 2007 based on confirmation statistics. (If it’s any consolation, we aren’t the only church body with this challenge. It’s true of nearly every denomination).
We actually do a good job of retaining our youth. The National Study of Youth and Religion finds that the LCMS is in a category of churches that retains about 86% of its teens through high school. When they graduate, however, in their post-high school years, church connections drop dramatically.

LCMS clergy family size decrease from 1890-1920

I finally got with Dr. Carlson regarding his Touchstone article mentioning LCMS clergy family size decrease from 1890-1920. He pointed me Alan Graebner's scholarly study entitled, "Journal of Social History [vol. 2, no. 4, 1969] and, sure enough, there was the chart on the second to last page (331). I don't know why or how I forgot reading this before, and I've read the Graebner article several times in the past. This does not, after all, represent something I've never encountered before in my studies of this issue as I previously indicated in the post below. Graebner does qualify his figures relative to my questions. In the graph he identifies the figures as the "mean number of children by decennial marriage cohort," specifying even the number of children born in the first ten years of marriage. These factors eliminate my concern for the veracity of these figures in describing an increase in contraception among the LCMS clergy. The figures speak for themselves and he went to a great deal of trouble to tabulate them, as evidenced in a lengthy footnote. Thanks to Dr. Carlson for bringing up this important precipitating factor in the change in teaching within the LCMS. Very enlightening (though equally disheartening). The change in teaching obviously followed a change in personal belief and practice among the clergy. We shouldn't be surprised to see the same incipient pattern being followed toward various other false teachings today. First error seeks tolerance, then equality of footing, and finally supremacy.

Issues, Etc. does Contraception

Pr. Todd Wilken interviews Dr. Allan Carlson then has open lines on the subject. Click here for the MP3. The interview and beginning of the open lines segment go quite well. But then near the end of open lines the question of "how many is enough" is brought up by a caller and then Pr. Wilken makes a weak analogy regarding crop management. Then, thankfully, producer Jeff Schwarz (father of four) jumps into redeem the program, injecting the issue of trusting God into the conversation. The open lines continues for the first half of the next hour. Overall, it was a great conversation - better than previous coverage of the issue by Issues, Etc. on the subject. Pr. Wilken handled the callers' questions pretty well. I did not get a chance to call in, however. By the time I did, the program was over. I did get to say hi to Jeff, though. :-)
Dr. Carlson had an excellent article in the most recent issue of Touchstone magazine, which is what spurred this interview. Interestingly, in the article Carlson implies that the LCMS clergy began artificially limiting their family sizes between 1890 and 1920, citing a change in average family size from 6.5 to 3.7. I wonder about this implication, from which he further implies that since they thus ceased to be models of a fruitful home this contributed to the change in attitude for their congregations and the broader culture, precipitating the acceptance of contraception by the culture at large.

I'm going to contact Dr. Carlson to find out 1) the source of these figures he gave in the article, and 2) if he considered the possibility of factors other than contraception which may have contributed to this change in average family size among LCMS clergy. I would consider it possible (even probable) that during this period of substantial growth in the LCMS (especially post WWI) when so many young men were entering the ministry that the figures are more a reflection of an increased percentage of young pastors in the LCMS who had not yet fathered all their children.

If this factor is already controlled for somehow in the figures Dr. Carlson provided, then these figures represent a VERY interesting finding that I have not personally encountered thus far in my studies about this subject. In the interview (above), Dr. Carlson even broadens his comments in this regard to include the clergy of other denominations as having smaller families on average even before the official change in church teaching began to occur in 1930.

Some Illuminating Figures

At the turn of the last century (1900) the birth rate in the Missouri Synod was around 38 per 1000 members, a natural birth rate for an industrialized country with little contraception practiced. All Christian churches and denominations taught that contraception is against God's Word.

In 1930, the Lambeth conference of Anglican bishops became very the first Judeo-Christian authority in ALL of history to deny the biblical prohibition of contraception taught in God's church since He Himself said to Adam and Eve, "Be Fruitful and Multiply," and he killed Onan for practicing it in Genesis 38:10.

From the late 1940s through the late 1950s, the birth rate in the LCMS hovered around 37 per 1000 members, not much different than a half century earlier. At this point, the Missouri Synod still held fast to the biblical teaching, vociferously condemning the acceptance of contraception by the general culture and by the Anglicans.

But in 1959, Concordia Publishing House published a book called "Planned Parenthood" by Professor Alfred Rehwinkel (an otherwise conservative theologian) of Concordia Theological Seminary in St. Louis. This book marked the beginning of the acceptance of contraception within the Missouri Synod. In the book, Rehwinkel praised Margaret Sanger's "brilliance" and "God-given talents." Sanger was the mother of birth control and remains the patron saint of abortionists (as well as eugenics, and euthanasia).

By the late 1960s, the birth rate in the Missouri Synod had dropped by a third to less than 25 per 1000 members.

In 1960, the LCMS baptized 82,000 babies.

In 1981, the LCMS Commission on Theology and Church Relations report on "Human Sexuality" (never adopted in convention) stated: "...in the absence of Scriptural prohibition, there need be no objection to contraception within a marital union which is, as a whole, fruitful." Insert whatever you like into the phrase "as a whole, fruitful" -- whatever that means outside of "childless." This CTCR report did not even attempt to refute the Scriptural prohibition of contraception taught consistently by Christians and OT Jews since the beginning of time.

While total LCMS membership has remained relatively static since 1960, the LCMS baptized only 31,700 children in 2005, a drop of 66% since 1960. We are now, like the rest of the general population, at replacement level fertility levels (about two children per family).

Currently, the casual observer sadly knows the average Lutheran family consists of one or two parents with one to three children (often with various last names). The effect of contraception obviously explains our dwindling Lutheran youth.

I thought you might find these facts illuminating.

Erich

P.S. Aaron Wolf has another good article on this in Chronicles Magazine this month (not online). I drew a couple of these figures from that article.