Hope for the LCMS

A humble, confessional, godly man has been elected to lead our Synod. May God keep him faithful to the Truth!

Here is a video of his election and acceptance speech:


And here is his first interview moments later on Issues, Etc.:



Anonymous said...

Is it just me, or does he look like Teddy Roosevelt?

Erich Heidenreich, DDS said...


Anonymous said...

Okay, I have a long drawn out question.

First, the folks at BJS suggest we read "It's Time" by Matt Harrison.


There is a study guide that goes with it.


From the study guide question 3:

"Do you agree or disagree with this statement: “Our disunity is killing us and our mission effectiveness—and at just the wrong moment” (p. 3). Can you give any examples from your experience in the LCMS of how our disunity is negatively impacting our mission to seek and save the lost? How does God’s Word address this problem?
See 1 Corinthians 1:10."

My first response to whether disunity is killing us and our mission effectiveness is, no, birth control is killing us and our mission.


Baptised Children--32,851
Juniors Confirmed--25,325
Adults Confirmed--19,153

Members -- 2,464,436
Baptised Children--82,248
Juniors Confirmed--52,445
Adults Confirmed and Baptised--32,000


In fact, the ratios of Adults/juniors confirmed to baptised children is actually more favorable in 2004 than it is in 1961.

For each child baptised in 1961, 1.02 youth/adults were confirmed.

By 2004 the ratio is 1 baptism for every 1.35 youth/adults baptised/confirmed.

Noting that the decline over the 43 years is 61% and assuming the rate of decline was steady over the period, the synod actually outperformed in retention and outreach by about 14% by 2004 as compared to 1961.

For this I just assumed the the number of children baptised in 1947 was equal to the number baptised in 1961, and the number baptised in 1990 was 20% more than in 2004.

For more accuracy, it would be necessary to know the actual number of baptised children in the cohort of confirmed juniors, that is the number baptised approximately 14 years earlier for each group. This is just a cursory look at the numbers as presented in the March 2006 blogpost.

Anyway, from just this back of the envelope calculation, it seems whatever disunity we may have isn't hurting our mission, unless of course you consider our mission to be this:


It seems we aren't failing the world as much as we are our own children.

How much more effective would we be in reaching the world if we had the contributions of all these missing children?

GL said...

Per Anonymous' comment. Amen.

Anonymous said...

"For each child baptised in 1961, 1.02 youth/adults were confirmed.

By 2004 the ratio is 1 baptism for every 1.35 youth/adults baptised/confirmed.

Noting that the decline over the 43 years is 61% "


Hey kids, here is a fun math word problem for you:

How long does it take for your church body to get to zero if you continue at the rate of improving your confirmation to baptism rate by 33% for every 61% that you decrease your baptisms over an interval of 43 years?

Maybe we have some budding young actuaries out there who could calculate the exact date.

I suspect however that the rate of the decline has steepened since 2004 because the rate of decline was likely not uniform over the 43 year interval since falling birthrates have a compounding effect.

Erich Heidenreich, DDS said...

You make some very valid points, Anon. All one has to do is look at what happened to the Shakers.