From the Asia Times:
The closing of the Christian womb has ensured eventual Muslim dominance.
Precise data are unobtainable, for demographics is politics in Lebanon, but Lebanon's Christians became as infertile as their European counterparts. Muslims, particularly the impoverished and marginalized Shi'ites, had more babies. In 1971, the Shi'ite fertility rate was 3.8 babies per female, against only 2 for Maronite Christians, or just below replacement. Precise data are not available, but Christian fertility is well below replacement today.
Even before the 1975 Lebanese Civil War, infertility undermined the position of Lebanon's Christians . The civil war itself arose from the demographic shift towards Muslims, who saw the Christian-leaning constitution as unfair. Christianity in the Levant ultimately failed for the same reason that it failed in Europe: populations that are nominally Christian did not trouble to reproduce.
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1 comment:
These numbers from the Asia Times don't make sense. Taken together, "Lebanon's Christians" and Shi'ite Muslims constitute about two-thirds of the population of Lebanon. Lebanon's TFR in the period 1970 - 1975 was 4.78, according to the Population Division of Economic and Social Affairs of the UN Secretariat. So, it makes no sense to say that Christians in 71 had a TFR of only 2 and Shi'ites a TFR of 3.8 when the country itself was at 4.78. One third of the country would have to have a TFR of more than 8 and there was no such group, or groups.
Plus, the source for this post (Spengler at Asia Times) is at pains to say that there is no precise data available (he says that twice); but, the fact is he got his numbers from somewhere (in which case he can provide the source), or someone made them up.
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